When I Walk And Enter The Room My Body Is Itching

markets (13.5)

week, from 7 to 11 May 2007

RAW MATERIALS: oil stabilizes at

Oil a consolidation after recent losses: the deadline closes July 64. Stable resistance just below the natural gas at 8.04 on expiration in July, while the gas at the pump for Americans share remains above $ 3 a gallon, weighing on their purchasing power.
metals in trouble because they have confirmed the correlation of short, direct and inverse to the dollar with the stock markets. Losses of 4% for copper, and about 2% for gold and argento.Si concludes with gold at 672 (June) Silver 13.3 (July) copper at 360 (July) platinum in 1341 (July) palladium 368 (June). The CRB index to 312 (June). Location

long-term upward

position in the medium-term upward

Asset Location: nothing

BONDS: narrow range
In a context of central banks paralyzed, the returns are always plastered with variations of a few cents, and ended the week with a slight rise despite the decline of American consumers. Moreover, the Fed has maintained the level of a school in its press (the growth has declined, but later it will increase, inflation rose, but then decrease), the ECB is limited to confirming the new expected for months now rise again the policy rate to 4% in June, but has gone further, only the BOE has raised its rates by a quarter (which have now surpassed those of the USA, 5.5%) but the expectations were for half a point, and the future is too open. Not to mention the last Asian: next week rates certainly still stuck to the Japanese, but if the Chinese will do something, it will be in the order of some incli absolutely useless. The Bond world are cast, then, between the support given to them by the flood of liquidity and the possible risks of recession on the one hand, and the brake caused the other hand, for fear of inflation (which are obvious and quoted by the same bankers central as the main concern). As balance weekly, the USA, the future 3-month December 2007 rose by 3 cents. to 5.08%, the two-year rises of 4 cts. 4.71% in the five-year rises of 3 cts. to 4.58%, the tenth anniversary of 4 to 4.68% and the thirtieth anniversary of 4 cts. 4.85%. In Europe, the ten-year bund rises by 2 cents. to 4.21% for which the differential with U.S. bonds of similar duration is still at 47 cents. Even in Japan, the ten-year rises by 2 cents. 1, 64%. Bond markets are also emerging with slight increases in yields. Location
long-term yields to rise

position in the medium term asset side

Location: nothing

WEATHER: busy week of transition
Monday, then Tuesday, German GDP and especially the U.S. index consumer prices in April that it expected a slight decline in net component from Petroio and food, and therefore if it could have surprise on the upside bearish on bonds and stocks, bullish on the dollar. Also more on Tuesday in New York and American indices and housing data on capital inflows in March. Wednesday will be the shift of consumer prices in Europe, and in the afternoon of U.S. shipyards and construction licenses, followed by U.S. industrial production and a variety of verbal interventions of other men Fed busy day Thursday, beginning with the decision of the BOJ (obviously rates still, but possible indications of the future that if more aggressive forecast, which would boost the yen), followed by a speech by Bernanke, and then the leading indicator and the Philly Fed (more will be said Greenspan is also some risk that it foreshadows the recession in contrast with the official optimism of the Fed.) Finally there is the G8 and Friday as the index of the Michigan data only on trust, prior to May.
As you can see a lot of irons in the fire, with the highlights from the building represented by inflation and U.S., as well as by the Bank of Japan. It is not excluded that it could trigger a very bad mix Wally with high inflation and housing crisis, which can be added to a surge in the yen (and this would be the scenario that paradoxically could lead to a euro-dollar to 1.34).