The week of 14 to 18 April 2005
MATERIALS PRIME: metals anticipate
metals were the only Chinese to anticipate the move, scaring unnecessarily, and the decline in the wake of last week continued their being profit-taking, only to bounce right after the news Friday as official seen sweeps away all fear. Now the implicit promise of future inflation should raise them with the one deriving from a possible brake greater strength of the dollar.
Oil continues to make history in itself: in the absence of other factors (climate, geopolitical) at the time, it remains to swing in a wide range. As a fundamental contradiction of the outstanding stock: Because there are bottlenecks in raffinanzione, gasoline stocks fall increase while those of raw (because you can not refine it), while there is a boom in Asian demand for raw, while many areas of production are politically weak (Venezuela, Nigeria, Middle East). The future is rising.
After last week's consolidation in recent days has consistently done the leg upward, closer to the top of the current range (60-70): the deadline closes on July 66. On the strength of natural gas to 8.14 on the expiration luglio.Si concludes with gold at 662 (June) silver 13 (July) copper at 332 (July) platinum in 1326 (July) palladium-365 (June).
The CRB index at 314.5 (June).
position to more than 6 months upwards
Position at 3-6 months: rising asset
Location: physical gold
metals were the only Chinese to anticipate the move, scaring unnecessarily, and the decline in the wake of last week continued their being profit-taking, only to bounce right after the news Friday as official seen sweeps away all fear. Now the implicit promise of future inflation should raise them with the one deriving from a possible brake greater strength of the dollar.
Oil continues to make history in itself: in the absence of other factors (climate, geopolitical) at the time, it remains to swing in a wide range. As a fundamental contradiction of the outstanding stock: Because there are bottlenecks in raffinanzione, gasoline stocks fall increase while those of raw (because you can not refine it), while there is a boom in Asian demand for raw, while many areas of production are politically weak (Venezuela, Nigeria, Middle East). The future is rising.
After last week's consolidation in recent days has consistently done the leg upward, closer to the top of the current range (60-70): the deadline closes on July 66. On the strength of natural gas to 8.14 on the expiration luglio.Si concludes with gold at 662 (June) silver 13 (July) copper at 332 (July) platinum in 1326 (July) palladium-365 (June).
The CRB index at 314.5 (June).
position to more than 6 months upwards
Position at 3-6 months: rising asset
Location: physical gold
BONDS: The yield on
decided rise in yields, uniform along the curve of the schedule, which brings them back to February levels, shows how this sector is also moving towards a scenario is not at risk, if anything, inflation and recession. The movement is also supported by the bubble sull'azionario attracting capital at the expense dell'obbligazionario. It remains to be well within the range for about a year and that has a roof (on the decennial U.S.) in area 5%, beyond which the problems would start (for blisters). How to balance weekly, in the U.S. the future 3-month December 2007 rose to 12 cts. to 5.20%, the biennial rises of 11 cents. to 4.82% in the five rooms of 15 cents. to 4.73%, the tenth of 12 to 4.8% and the thirtieth anniversary of 11 cents. to 4.96%. In Europe, the ten-year bund gained 10 cents. to 4.31% for which the differential with U.S. bonds of similar duration increased to 49 cents. In Japan however, the ten-year detention at 1, 64%. Bond markets are also emerging with slight increases in yields, but the spread shrinks with the Americans (as well as the spread of junk bonds) to testimony that the risk appetite continues to increase. Location
over 6 months to rising yields
3-6 months Location: Location
asset side: nothing
BAGS: green Wally
A week had not started well, especially among technology, pending the Trimurti that they feared could trigger the long-awaited correction, but after the reassurances of the Trimurti ended well, especially on the indices of showcase ( new record for the average nominal algebra of the 30 stocks that make up the Dow Jones): The gain is reflected precisely dell'sp500 Friday. The green light came from Trimurti still provides a semester of further rate hikes, possibly manic type (classic final phase of the bubbles), but does not prevent any corrections to materialize during the pulse, which serves just to start then with greater force that within the next month should get, maybe after the SP500 has touched a historic high rating of 1550, and should be in the order of a hundred punti.La week ends with Dow at 13,556 (+1.7%) in 1523 SP500 (+1.1%) NASDAQ in 2558 (-0.1%) Nasdaq100 in 1906 (-0.2%) Russell 2000 -0.7% +0.9% Utilities 1.2% transport semiconductor -2, 6% broker-dealer Banks -0.6% +0.8%. The titles on the upside on the NYSE have fluctuated between the minimum and maximum to 1100 Monday to Friday at 2100. The relationship between put and call rooms 0.68 to 0.77. The volatility index (VIX) drops to 12.75. The
Nikkey down to 17,400 (-0.8%), always filled the bubble in Europe with the DAX in 7607 (+1.8%) the CAC in 6101 (+0.9%), the Footsie in 6640 (+1.2%), Italy at the without the slightest hope: Intel Corp to 44,364 (+1.9%) and in Mibtel 343 653 824 (+1, 8%). superbubbles continued spectacular everywhere except in China where he took a breather in anticipation of measures came after the close on Friday (+0.2%) +3.7% Brazil 2.3% India and Russia +0.8%. Location
over 6 months: 3-6 months Location
overall decline: rise in overall asset position
: buying put spreads composite maturity. June 15
WEATHER: empty weeks
Monday there is nothing, just waiting to see confirmation of the Shanghai Stock Exchange (and should be positive, with further impetus to the global lists). German ZEW index Tuesday in May, while Paulson meets with Chinese. Wednesday the almost empty, and when you get to come out Thursday morning in the German IFO May, and in the afternoon by the U.S. orders for durable goods and sales of both new homes in April, along with the weekly benefits to unemployed important to see if is confirmed by the recent trend of force, launching optimistic expectations in the labor market in the calendar setttimana later.
closing Friday with Japan's inflation and sales of existing U.S. homes.
As you can see then in the first 3 days in the absence of any new macro data may come only from the political front (US-China meeting), while back in the final scene of any surprises on the U.S. economy. Expectations are for permanent orders under braking and building on recent stagnant minimum.
closing Friday with Japan's inflation and sales of existing U.S. homes.
As you can see then in the first 3 days in the absence of any new macro data may come only from the political front (US-China meeting), while back in the final scene of any surprises on the U.S. economy. Expectations are for permanent orders under braking and building on recent stagnant minimum.
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