CURRENCY: The euro-dollar
support the dollar, as a general index ends the week where he began, a little above 82. The collapse that would occur in case of breakage 80 share, it seems averted from one side to the choices of the Trimurti, the other because the U.S. macro data - while being mixed and risk-have so far moved in his favor: the official consumer inflation in April was slightly decreased, the manufacturing sector shows signs of rebounding, while keeping consumer confidence (even if the crisis Immobiliare is far from over) thanks to employment in the indication obtained from these subsidies week seems to go better than expected. In this context
Eurodollar maturity. June has experienced two distinct phases: after the initial stand-by on Tuesday, U.S. inflation has exceeded the weakest area of \u200b\u200bresistance to up to 1.358 1.363. Not having had the strength to overcome this altitude (become new resistance), it quickly fell to 1.352 and then the first Friday after the Chinese anuncio until supportone of 1.348 that has continued to Pull back on closing to 1.353 (in basically a twin compared to the previous Friday). The euro-dollar movements for now performs more as a derivative dell'euroyen or commodity or stock, depending on the theme of the day, this is because, in addition to possible fluctuations, the framework of mutual interest rates appears to be well defined, and no individual data macros may change soon. Beyond the factors of indirect and occasional movements, however, seems to emerge a more downward pressure, due to the fact that the market had once bet on a Fed rate cut in August, while the latter tend to suppress evidence definitively this hypothesis; and most showed some doubt on the assumption that the ECB continues to raise interest rates after June. But over that amount, the weak U.S. macro data have more effect than strong because for the market is inconceivable that the Fed will raise rates while still more and more inclined to a possible fall. So maybe there is still room for some downward Eurodollar, especially if the ECB stands firm on interest rates, but not much, on the other hand the upside is possible that the top of the next month has already seen. With reference to what I wrote in my last note, I begin to see more then likely a Macro range from 1.37 to 1.32 in summer. Returning to the immediate
, technically, remains to be seen whether it will confirm the fee 1.348 weekly top floor of the range maybe content to 1.363, or if it will sell, and projected to cross 1.34. Next week, initially narrow range from 1.348 to 1.358 because there are no data until Thursday (German ifo, durable goods orders, home sales U.S.). However, other indirect factors mentioned above (especially the yen) could have the same cause breakage. Scenario
downward: the appointment would be 1.34 per share from where it should develop a reaction to the upside for the weekend can bring it back to 1.35 before a possible test of 1.33 in the eighth later if (and only if) the packet of monster-Friday, June 1 show unequivocally strong U.S. data (and a likely rise in the week next sequence view of the ECB and the conclusion - in this scenario, the options expire in June, 1.34 in area). Scenario
upwards, the appointment would 1.363 per unit which has become importnte resistance, in the eighth to beat the next if the quoted package on June 1 was clearly weak, with new tests of maximum area in 1.37 (and then probably transfer and termination - in this scenario-the expiry of options June in the area 1.36). The general index of the dollar to 82.1 (June) to more than six months
Location: dollar general downward
position in 3-6 months: dollar asset side
Location: call + buy put spreads (deadline June 8)
support the dollar, as a general index ends the week where he began, a little above 82. The collapse that would occur in case of breakage 80 share, it seems averted from one side to the choices of the Trimurti, the other because the U.S. macro data - while being mixed and risk-have so far moved in his favor: the official consumer inflation in April was slightly decreased, the manufacturing sector shows signs of rebounding, while keeping consumer confidence (even if the crisis Immobiliare is far from over) thanks to employment in the indication obtained from these subsidies week seems to go better than expected. In this context
Eurodollar maturity. June has experienced two distinct phases: after the initial stand-by on Tuesday, U.S. inflation has exceeded the weakest area of \u200b\u200bresistance to up to 1.358 1.363. Not having had the strength to overcome this altitude (become new resistance), it quickly fell to 1.352 and then the first Friday after the Chinese anuncio until supportone of 1.348 that has continued to Pull back on closing to 1.353 (in basically a twin compared to the previous Friday). The euro-dollar movements for now performs more as a derivative dell'euroyen or commodity or stock, depending on the theme of the day, this is because, in addition to possible fluctuations, the framework of mutual interest rates appears to be well defined, and no individual data macros may change soon. Beyond the factors of indirect and occasional movements, however, seems to emerge a more downward pressure, due to the fact that the market had once bet on a Fed rate cut in August, while the latter tend to suppress evidence definitively this hypothesis; and most showed some doubt on the assumption that the ECB continues to raise interest rates after June. But over that amount, the weak U.S. macro data have more effect than strong because for the market is inconceivable that the Fed will raise rates while still more and more inclined to a possible fall. So maybe there is still room for some downward Eurodollar, especially if the ECB stands firm on interest rates, but not much, on the other hand the upside is possible that the top of the next month has already seen. With reference to what I wrote in my last note, I begin to see more then likely a Macro range from 1.37 to 1.32 in summer. Returning to the immediate
, technically, remains to be seen whether it will confirm the fee 1.348 weekly top floor of the range maybe content to 1.363, or if it will sell, and projected to cross 1.34. Next week, initially narrow range from 1.348 to 1.358 because there are no data until Thursday (German ifo, durable goods orders, home sales U.S.). However, other indirect factors mentioned above (especially the yen) could have the same cause breakage. Scenario
downward: the appointment would be 1.34 per share from where it should develop a reaction to the upside for the weekend can bring it back to 1.35 before a possible test of 1.33 in the eighth later if (and only if) the packet of monster-Friday, June 1 show unequivocally strong U.S. data (and a likely rise in the week next sequence view of the ECB and the conclusion - in this scenario, the options expire in June, 1.34 in area). Scenario
upwards, the appointment would 1.363 per unit which has become importnte resistance, in the eighth to beat the next if the quoted package on June 1 was clearly weak, with new tests of maximum area in 1.37 (and then probably transfer and termination - in this scenario-the expiry of options June in the area 1.36). The general index of the dollar to 82.1 (June) to more than six months
Location: dollar general downward
position in 3-6 months: dollar asset side
Location: call + buy put spreads (deadline June 8)
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