updated to 12.5
The dollar has retraced as general index, 50% of the fall of the last month, despite a week of recovery Fundamental remain largely negative (deficit sales up 10% in March, decreasing consumption). One hand it to him on the yen, which has in turn recovered in relation to all currencies, helped by some stronger statement of Japan, mainly from uncertainties as well as registered shares and commodities (partial closure of the carry trades). In this context
Eurodollar maturity. June did not observe the expected range, bucandolo downward and reaching the minimum of 1.348 but then rebound in the final hours, thanks to weak U.S. retail sales and close to 1.355.
The Eurodollar is therefore returned to the levels of testing a month ago the former resistance area of \u200b\u200b1.35 has now become an important support.
If you look at the trend from mid-January onwards, it is noted that the June futures has traded in a range of regular range in scope and duration: every half month broke the previous resistance has become a new medium, and shifted upward about 200 Tiksi. So from 1.295 to 1.313 increased to 1.313 to 1.332, then 1.332 to 1.348 and finally last month (as a whole) to 1.348 to 1.3715. The range of the last month was the largest, is divided neatly into two trends: bullish and bearish in the first 20 days in the last 10 who have just returned to the starting point. Next month, it seems difficult that we can continue with the previous series, but as the fundamentals remain negative for the dollar, the scenario more likely it is a return, although in a zig-zag, to 1.37 (so another month of stay in the range from 1.349 to 1.3715).
Alternatively, however - though less likely, that if it triggers in conjunction with the U.S. data and best accompanied by a falling stock market recovery of the yen, the retracement is amplified and the change is going to be installed on the range in between mid-March and mid-April (1.332 to 1.349).
All these arguments are used for the selection of bands to be acquired through options.
In the last week I could put in the portfolio, to the almost zero cost, using the put spreads, which range from 1.335 to 1.355 as we have seen is one of the eligible candidates for the deadline of 8 June. Now the ideal would be to acquire, through the call, the first .355-1, 375 (the probability that the June 8 is 1.335 to 1.375 nell'intervallone terms are very high, whatever the scenario realizzantesi). Next week should be between 1.357 (become resistant to short) and just 1.348, keeping it level and an eventual overtaking of resistance cited above, in the wake further weak macro data, avvalorerà defined above scenario more likely.
The general index of the dollar to 82.06 (June) Location of long-term dollar decline generalePosizione medium-term dollar assets decline generalePosizione: buying put spreads + calls maturity. June
Eurodollar maturity. June did not observe the expected range, bucandolo downward and reaching the minimum of 1.348 but then rebound in the final hours, thanks to weak U.S. retail sales and close to 1.355.
The Eurodollar is therefore returned to the levels of testing a month ago the former resistance area of \u200b\u200b1.35 has now become an important support.
If you look at the trend from mid-January onwards, it is noted that the June futures has traded in a range of regular range in scope and duration: every half month broke the previous resistance has become a new medium, and shifted upward about 200 Tiksi. So from 1.295 to 1.313 increased to 1.313 to 1.332, then 1.332 to 1.348 and finally last month (as a whole) to 1.348 to 1.3715. The range of the last month was the largest, is divided neatly into two trends: bullish and bearish in the first 20 days in the last 10 who have just returned to the starting point. Next month, it seems difficult that we can continue with the previous series, but as the fundamentals remain negative for the dollar, the scenario more likely it is a return, although in a zig-zag, to 1.37 (so another month of stay in the range from 1.349 to 1.3715).
Alternatively, however - though less likely, that if it triggers in conjunction with the U.S. data and best accompanied by a falling stock market recovery of the yen, the retracement is amplified and the change is going to be installed on the range in between mid-March and mid-April (1.332 to 1.349).
All these arguments are used for the selection of bands to be acquired through options.
In the last week I could put in the portfolio, to the almost zero cost, using the put spreads, which range from 1.335 to 1.355 as we have seen is one of the eligible candidates for the deadline of 8 June. Now the ideal would be to acquire, through the call, the first .355-1, 375 (the probability that the June 8 is 1.335 to 1.375 nell'intervallone terms are very high, whatever the scenario realizzantesi). Next week should be between 1.357 (become resistant to short) and just 1.348, keeping it level and an eventual overtaking of resistance cited above, in the wake further weak macro data, avvalorerà defined above scenario more likely.
The general index of the dollar to 82.06 (June) Location of long-term dollar decline generalePosizione medium-term dollar assets decline generalePosizione: buying put spreads + calls maturity. June
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