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note on the markets (3.6)

RAW MATERIALS: they have stopped selling gold

central banks announced that they have sold in recent months large quantities of gold, and this year seems to have done. Immediate positive reaction of the yellow metal that has dragged the entire sector. The oil is smooth, varying between weekly stock data and news specific to the July deadline closes to the almost unchanged from 65.1 to seven days earlier, a level it is now 3 months. Without even the natural gas to 7.88 on the expiration luglio.Si concludes with gold at 677 (August) 13.7 Silver (July) copper at 340 (July) platinum in 1295 (July) PD 377 (September). The CRB index to 315 (June).
position to more than 6 months, rising to 3-6 months
Location: Location
side asset: physical gold

CHANGES: dollar still
The dollar, as a general index concludes the week on the same level of seven days first at 82.29 although there have been numerous macro data. The latter has provided no surprises and were eliminated from each other: in the U.S. to example, GDP slightly weaker than expected employment data have to be counterbalanced by a little stronger.
profile followed by euro-dollar this week is in line with the scenario bearish note last week. After an initial extension to 1.353 immediately aborted, was followed by a test of new lows, ended Friday at 1.34, which have rebounded in the final ending as it had begun to 1.346. The downward pressure seems to be phased out, although the upside for now exists only as a covering from previous sales. Next week there are few data, and unimportant, but at least there are plenty of events (ECB, Bernanke). Friday the options expire in June, range and the more likely is the one from 0.34 to 1, 35.
Alternatively, you can envisage two scenarios per week (but I remain neutral between them because much will depend on Trichet's conference: where will be interpreted as a harbinger of further increases over 4% which will set out Wednesday, most likely the rise, and vice versa).
downward Scenario: breaching new lows of 1.34 and 1.336 envisaged up to where should return to 1.34 before falling back to 1.33. Scenario
upwards bet up to 1.355, where should return to 1.35 before recovering to 1.36.
The general index of the dollar to 82.29 (June) to more than six months
Location: dollar general downward
3-6 months Location: dollar asset side
Location: + call + buy put spreads straddle (deadline June 8), sold straddle maturity. September

BONDS: The yield still up
American corporations have placed new bond issues in May to a record $ 140 billion, and in the past 12 months the rate of increase was 16%, it is interesting to note that the 65% of these emissions relate purely financial entities.
The rise in yields continues, homogeneous along the maturity curve, with the ten-year U.S. touching the 4.95% maximum of nine months. How to balance weekly, in the U.S., the future 3-month December 2007 rooms 11 cts. to 5.33%, the biennial rises of 11 cents. 4.97% in the five-year rises of 13 cents. to 4.92%, the tenth anniversary of 9 to 4.95% and the thirtieth anniversary of 6 cts. to 5.06%. In Europe, the ten-year bund salt of 7 cents. to 4.45% for which the differential with U.S. bonds of similar duration increased to 50 cents. Even in Japan, the ten rooms of 4 cts. 1, 76%, as well as in emerging bond markets, with rising yields in the range of 10 cents.
The risk premium on high-risk securities has fallen to a record low: an average of 242 cts. more than Treasuries, compared with an average value of the last five years of 500 cts. (In 2002 arrived at 1240 cts.). Another record: the share of U.S. government bonds between 3 and 10 years held abroad has risen 80% (which also means that 80% of interest paid with U.S. tax revenue goes abroad). The six major countries of the Arabian Gulf have together accumulated more foreign reserves in China: $ 1.6 trillion. Location
over 6 months to rising yields
position at 3-6 months: the rise in asset returns
Location: nothing

BAGS: swell
The week ends with Dow to 13,668 (+1 , 2%) SP500 to 1536 (+1.3%) NASDAQ in 2613 (+2%) Nasdaq100 in 1957 (+2%) Russell 2000 +2.8% +3.4% Utilities 1.4% transport semiconductors +1.9% broker-dealer Banks +5.3% +0.5%. The titles ranged upward on NYSE share more than 2000. The relationship between put and call drops from 0.93 to 0.73. The volatility index (VIX) 12.78 retainer. The Nikkey rises to 17,960 (+2.7%), always expanding the bubble on the DAX in 7987 (+2.8%), climb all the other indices : the CAC in 6168 (+1.9%), the Footsie in 6676 (+1.9%) is not only Italy at stops without the slightest hope for 43,010 Intel Corp (-0%) and Mibtel to 33,705 (+ 0.3%).
Break time for the super-bubble in China, -4.3%, Brazil 3.5% India and Russia +1.6% +1.9% over 6 months
Location: Location
overall decline in 3-6 months: general rise
position asset: buying put spreads SP500, exp. June 15

WEATHER: about the ECB
Monday, output prices in Europe and orders to U.S. factories, both in April.
full day Tuesday: index of services in May and retail sales in April, in Europe;
international conference which will be discussed in Bernanke, Trichet and Fukui and the U.S. ISM services in May and Paulson's speech on Sino- American.
Wednesday after German factory orders on the ECB's decision on interest rates (expected to grow at 4%) and Trichet's press conference, while the U.S. will come to the final cost of labor and productivity in the first quarter and talk about a couple of members of the Fed
Thursday, in many festivals in Europe while the British still held interest rates in the afternoon U.S. subsidies and sales at 'wholesale.
Friday ended with the U.S. trade deficit in April, expected to remain high on the previous month.
As you can see there are no data particularly strategic, although they can always serve as an excuse for some movement intraday. The central issue for the euro-dollar exchange rate is any indication by the ECB of further increases during 2007.