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Economy: particular versus general

ECONOMY: particulare versus general
Wednesday 6, about the crash of the stock market and the surge in yields, wrote that the movement would not be lasting for long. And in fact as early as Friday, everything was back. Rates after a modest correction of 3% have recovered half the loss in a few days, as yields idem. Doing this just real time prediction was easy knowing where to look. Nothing has changed in global monetary policy: China and Japan continues with impunity to pump liquidity, the Fed is not even remotely dream of raising rates, the ECB will continue its rise again in front of a snail's pace (and parodossale, clear sign of confusion of time, that are the left-unions-etc. to criticize the ECB to raise interest rates: do not understand that fraud against the people is precisely to keep real interest rates too low, benefiting the large debtors, but there you are ...).
Under these conditions, as painted in the notes of seven days ago, the likely scenario is always the one described here. Within which there is obviously room for acute phases of volatility and exaggerated, just because the iperfinanziarizzato global system is based on a series of mechanical vulnerable in times of fear triggered by various chance factors.
For example, this week the surge in oil due to direct storm occurred while the Strait of Hormuz productivity data came down and labor costs rising When, Bernanke repeated his usual mantra of the facade (the growth will resume, the more risk to infazione), has generated fears of a rise in U.S. rates by more than ten-year bond at the threshold of 5% yield. At that point have taken other sales of bonds, automated and computerized, the giants of the mortgage used to hedge interest rate risk (those with fixed-rate loans to protect themselves from rising interest rates, of course, sells bonds to fixed rate ), and given the huge sums involved and the usual technical mechanisms (stop loss, speculation that rides the momentum, etc.). in a few hours there was a jump of more than 10 cts. which then came to a peak max. 5.20 a share reached in the European Union on Friday morning, and only the forcings due to speculation, also catalyzed by the unexpected rise in interest rates to 8% New Zealand, which had the counterpart not only on stock indices came to lose 3% Earlier this week, but also on commodities and especially the dollar against all that was stolen.
game so easy for the PPT (plunge protection team) Paulson to intervene in support of the quotations with the opening of Wally taking advantage of the abolition of fears about the damage of the cyclone in the Persian Gulf (oil down) and snap the opposite movement during the afternoon, accelerated in the final classic sign triumph. So the indices retrieved the 1, 5, returning to 5.1% yields, the dollar back down even if only slightly, remaining outside the rebound only commdities (will do so next week).
Among other things, the logic according to which the sick prevailing inflation risk there can be only if there is growth (which is not true, especially in this age of iperfinanziarizzazione), these falls occur when impulsive fear a rise in inflation, there is an automatic parachute: the conjunction of the rise in yields-falling stock market, it represents in itself a depressant growth, and therefore it will follow then that now suffers a decline in inflation. A majority reason the American economy where the disastrous real estate can only get worse if the cost of mortgages rises. Well with that logic, by definition, crises are absorbed immediately. If we consider that those in power can easily choose the time at which to reverse the trend by bringing down the field in his arm (the number of Goldman, Morgan etc..), Causing the coatings to the bearish speculation, and we consider that the taps of global liquidity due to stay open up to Chinese and Japanese, is easy to see how there is no game. Only very strong external events, such as a true geopolitical crisis, can trigger something more serious and lasting.
course, as I illustrated at the time in a separate Special who's boss - to boost its profits - need step "corrective", from time to time. Since the market bubble, outrageously over-valued, it is possible that there is a very hot summer, with other episodes like this, but (until we change the aforementioned monetary policies) will always be reabsorbed (even if we beat the failure of some large financial entity ).
clear, therefore, the episode of the week, I prefer to insist instead on the nature of the system to be deeply carcinogen.
Having betrayed the rule of free competition, as simple as essential, and having destroyed the operation of the law of supply and demand in crucial sector of the currency, reduced to mere act of trust and monopoly became interventionist states that drive interest rates, has destroyed the basic principle of general equilibrium theory, which allowed special interests to become general interest.
now no more hope, the evidence grows every day. It goes from boom in mergers and acquisitions (which increases the monopoly in growing more and more sectors), contempt for the irreparable damage that the myth of continuous growth causes the same physical environment in which humanity lives. With a current example, just look at the ridiculous outcome of the G8 on ecological measures. Emerges clearly as their particular interests submitted without pity the public interest.
Where today would be possible, technologically, connect via video conference at no cost, you instead spend hundreds of millions of dollars, and produce an additional heavy pollution, a farce in which the media puppets come together, knowing that they can not conclude anything serious, if not give some sop facade with temporal perspectives to 2050 (sigh!), dropping a few crumbs from the table to feed their dogs wagging shift (African) and get a clear conscience.
painful.

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Flash: shoot the carousel

overtaking the share of 5% on the ten-year U.S. sales associates are taken to cover the mountains of transactions made on loans, and the yield has jumped to 5.1%. This has finally been noticed on the Stock Exchange, with the SP500 in the fall of 1500, which in turn triggered the partial shutdown of the carry trade especially in euroyen with the gear fell rapidly from over 164 to just over 162, and finally dell'euroyen the fall has dragged the euro-dollar has lost 100tiks compared to yesterday, reaching 1.3430.

Since the cause of the mechanical movement is cited, in turn originated from the fact that even begin to peep fears of a rise rates (favored by high oil prices), I do not think that will continue for long, though - being a highly doped several times as written - that there can be triggered by excess stoploss chain.

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note on the markets (3.6)

RAW MATERIALS: they have stopped selling gold

central banks announced that they have sold in recent months large quantities of gold, and this year seems to have done. Immediate positive reaction of the yellow metal that has dragged the entire sector. The oil is smooth, varying between weekly stock data and news specific to the July deadline closes to the almost unchanged from 65.1 to seven days earlier, a level it is now 3 months. Without even the natural gas to 7.88 on the expiration luglio.Si concludes with gold at 677 (August) 13.7 Silver (July) copper at 340 (July) platinum in 1295 (July) PD 377 (September). The CRB index to 315 (June).
position to more than 6 months, rising to 3-6 months
Location: Location
side asset: physical gold

CHANGES: dollar still
The dollar, as a general index concludes the week on the same level of seven days first at 82.29 although there have been numerous macro data. The latter has provided no surprises and were eliminated from each other: in the U.S. to example, GDP slightly weaker than expected employment data have to be counterbalanced by a little stronger.
profile followed by euro-dollar this week is in line with the scenario bearish note last week. After an initial extension to 1.353 immediately aborted, was followed by a test of new lows, ended Friday at 1.34, which have rebounded in the final ending as it had begun to 1.346. The downward pressure seems to be phased out, although the upside for now exists only as a covering from previous sales. Next week there are few data, and unimportant, but at least there are plenty of events (ECB, Bernanke). Friday the options expire in June, range and the more likely is the one from 0.34 to 1, 35.
Alternatively, you can envisage two scenarios per week (but I remain neutral between them because much will depend on Trichet's conference: where will be interpreted as a harbinger of further increases over 4% which will set out Wednesday, most likely the rise, and vice versa).
downward Scenario: breaching new lows of 1.34 and 1.336 envisaged up to where should return to 1.34 before falling back to 1.33. Scenario
upwards bet up to 1.355, where should return to 1.35 before recovering to 1.36.
The general index of the dollar to 82.29 (June) to more than six months
Location: dollar general downward
3-6 months Location: dollar asset side
Location: + call + buy put spreads straddle (deadline June 8), sold straddle maturity. September

BONDS: The yield still up
American corporations have placed new bond issues in May to a record $ 140 billion, and in the past 12 months the rate of increase was 16%, it is interesting to note that the 65% of these emissions relate purely financial entities.
The rise in yields continues, homogeneous along the maturity curve, with the ten-year U.S. touching the 4.95% maximum of nine months. How to balance weekly, in the U.S., the future 3-month December 2007 rooms 11 cts. to 5.33%, the biennial rises of 11 cents. 4.97% in the five-year rises of 13 cents. to 4.92%, the tenth anniversary of 9 to 4.95% and the thirtieth anniversary of 6 cts. to 5.06%. In Europe, the ten-year bund salt of 7 cents. to 4.45% for which the differential with U.S. bonds of similar duration increased to 50 cents. Even in Japan, the ten rooms of 4 cts. 1, 76%, as well as in emerging bond markets, with rising yields in the range of 10 cents.
The risk premium on high-risk securities has fallen to a record low: an average of 242 cts. more than Treasuries, compared with an average value of the last five years of 500 cts. (In 2002 arrived at 1240 cts.). Another record: the share of U.S. government bonds between 3 and 10 years held abroad has risen 80% (which also means that 80% of interest paid with U.S. tax revenue goes abroad). The six major countries of the Arabian Gulf have together accumulated more foreign reserves in China: $ 1.6 trillion. Location
over 6 months to rising yields
position at 3-6 months: the rise in asset returns
Location: nothing

BAGS: swell
The week ends with Dow to 13,668 (+1 , 2%) SP500 to 1536 (+1.3%) NASDAQ in 2613 (+2%) Nasdaq100 in 1957 (+2%) Russell 2000 +2.8% +3.4% Utilities 1.4% transport semiconductors +1.9% broker-dealer Banks +5.3% +0.5%. The titles ranged upward on NYSE share more than 2000. The relationship between put and call drops from 0.93 to 0.73. The volatility index (VIX) 12.78 retainer. The Nikkey rises to 17,960 (+2.7%), always expanding the bubble on the DAX in 7987 (+2.8%), climb all the other indices : the CAC in 6168 (+1.9%), the Footsie in 6676 (+1.9%) is not only Italy at stops without the slightest hope for 43,010 Intel Corp (-0%) and Mibtel to 33,705 (+ 0.3%).
Break time for the super-bubble in China, -4.3%, Brazil 3.5% India and Russia +1.6% +1.9% over 6 months
Location: Location
overall decline in 3-6 months: general rise
position asset: buying put spreads SP500, exp. June 15

WEATHER: about the ECB
Monday, output prices in Europe and orders to U.S. factories, both in April.
full day Tuesday: index of services in May and retail sales in April, in Europe;
international conference which will be discussed in Bernanke, Trichet and Fukui and the U.S. ISM services in May and Paulson's speech on Sino- American.
Wednesday after German factory orders on the ECB's decision on interest rates (expected to grow at 4%) and Trichet's press conference, while the U.S. will come to the final cost of labor and productivity in the first quarter and talk about a couple of members of the Fed
Thursday, in many festivals in Europe while the British still held interest rates in the afternoon U.S. subsidies and sales at 'wholesale.
Friday ended with the U.S. trade deficit in April, expected to remain high on the previous month.
As you can see there are no data particularly strategic, although they can always serve as an excuse for some movement intraday. The central issue for the euro-dollar exchange rate is any indication by the ECB of further increases during 2007.

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Economy: the likely scenario

ECONOMY: the likely scenario
macroeonomico The debate over the U.S. revolves around two schools of thought.
The first, supported by the Fed and major markets, is convinced that the slowdown of GDP in the first quarter is due to the inventory cycle and the impact of one-off real estate crisis, then intended to return immediately with the new growth above the 2% for the remainder of the year.
The second, carried out by many scholars, believes that the worst of the housing crisis is yet to come, and above that have yet to be felt the effects on consumption.
Personally, as written many times, I think that both schools did not seize the momentous appearance in place: the growth increasingly depends on the super financialization economy, the latter may therefore be able to contain the housing crisis as it finds the first school of thought, but the enormous cost of increasing long-term credit excesses and global imbalances. And if it is true that the indebtedness of households, businesses and government has become too high to continue to expand to sustain growth, it is also true that given the incredible expansion of the financial sector (banks and non banks) mega whose income contributes to the keeping of national income, especially consumers. No coincidence that we are witnessing a boom town for mergers and acquisitions, stock buybacks, special dividends, etc., which corresponds to a boom town in the issue of new debt in the financial sector thanks to the leverage that supports the increasingly aggressive market liquidity during difficult times (like the current mortgage).
To be more clear: when you make a purchase with the issuance of new debt is added liquidity to the new system, some of which ends up with sellers who then use it to buy other securities, in part, it ends the same buyers through the now popular in carrying out special dividends, and partly still going to increase the income of the myriad of financial intermediaries involved in the process. It is no accident that any notice of the newly acquired stock from rising, causing automatically an increase in collateral values \u200b\u200bas a guarantee for new debt, in a self-sustaining process and seemingly without end.
These are real problems, not debate recession recession-no, which also ignores the risk overall inflation, now in the official accounts to 4% as the GDP deflator.
From the perspective of the economy I would say that everything is very clear when, as rarely before.
China and Japan do not change monetary policy, with the two main consequences of which remain intact:
1) the global liquidity continues to grow;
2) partial inflation (of manufactured goods imported from China) remains low, allowing banks power of holding the real interest rates (with some increase in the facade, here and there, but no actual monetary restrictions).
queso In context, the global economy will continue to financialized increasingly meet the local or sectoral crises with the growing global credit megabolla (and a thousand blue bubbles that arise).
course will continue to grow slowly but surely the total inflation and the global trade imbalance, which provided an income rationem dramatic ending, but it is now clear that it is difficult to see in 2007.
latter was started in the perception of the market, with the idea that the U.S. housing crisis would lead the Fed to lower the rates, thus, bond yields had fallen to 4.5% in the decade, reversing the curve, the dollar had lost more than 4% as the overall index, the commodity and stock exchanges were up, with gold up to $ 700, reabsorbing quickly hiccup on 27 February sparked by fears that the Asian (China, Japan) to change policy: fear proved unfounded.
From early May we are convinced that the Fed will hold rates firm throughout the year as bond yields have worked around the tenth and moved up close to 5%, flattening the curve, the dollar has regained third the previous fall, the raw materials are a little reversed with gold up to 650, and the stock markets have continued their march anyway, because being blown every excuse to go (because they thought the first cut in rates now because they think that the economy is fine, etc.). .
These adjustments started a month ago, could continue for a while, maybe go over the decade to 5%, the dollar recovered a little bit more, and so on, but basically there is no reason why we go beyond the understanding as mentioned above the ' immobility of the de facto global central banks, especially that of Asia.
the near future so the forecast is simple: we will stay with
yields a slight upward trend at the turn of 5%, with the dollar in the lateral band between 81 and 84 as a general index, while commodity and stock exchanges, despite ups and downs, continue their inflated.
Any fluctuations, as well as their size, two variables depend on the usual "stupid" they look at the markets:
1) partial inflation, excluding oil and food: should surprise to the upside, then the markets will perceive the risk of rising interest rates (in this case the rise in yields and the dollar could go beyond the limits mentioned above, while stock and commodities will suffer a correction).
2) the economic growth were to surprise on the downside, then return the current expectations of lower rates and different prices may return to the levels at the end of April.
But I think that neither the one nor the other variable, for the coming months will present significant surprises, so I expect the laterality cited above, despite the inevitable fluctuations (without which the rest of the markets out of business).
Obviously, any geopolitical surprises are always possible and, above all, to the extent that will impact the oil may cause new scenarios and still more acute phases of volatility, but when you do not need think about.

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Flash: cake,

The Chinese have raised the tax on fixed stock market bubble from 1 to 3 per thousand. Result: a few bags on sale quickly absorbed, a temporary strengthening of the yen as quickly aborted. Chinese guy I do not understand that it is impossible to have your cake and eat it too, that it is impossible to keep fixed exchange rate (pumping liquidity) and the stock market in check. The markets take when they see the reflex bag down on CI-yen fell upon it without restraint when considering buying (and selling for the yen).
In this context, the euro-dollar has so far not lived with their own light, but only as a drain tank movements on the yen. Now there's still three days of the Condor, in which some should get their own light.
Today, before the new estimate on private payrolls, then in the evening from the minutes of the Fed
difficult, however, that it leaves the range to be, max. could expand a little downward maybe up to 1.34 (if both elements cited were interpreted as positive for the dollar) which in view of tomorrow and the day after should return to gravitate in area 1.345.

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eat it note on the market (27.5)

The week of 21 to 25 May 2007

ECONOMY: playing bubbles

It clarifies the situation Immobiliare U.S., where the bubble is begins to break out, at least for homes new: the manufacturers to be able to leave the new development had to bring down the prices of '11%, this has permitted an increase in the volume of sales (although the 16% recorded will definitely be revised downward, and it's all concentrated in a area of \u200b\u200bthe country). But what matters is the fall in prices. In fact, the owners of existing houses that are still trying to resist taking the firm prices, unable to sell: -2.6% and unsold reaches new record. It does not take a genius to understand that they will also give, if only because now the prices of new homes are much lower (with the same characteristics) to those of existing homes. Also has yet to befall many of them the blade of the adjustment of interest rates variables.
remains to be seen what effect will the economy overall, moving from a situation in which it was supported by a cash-case upside down, where not only is not able to get more money from their homes, but also need to spend on they more and more: the Fed insists that there will be serious damage, general and markets seem to believe it. In reality it is very likely that consumers will tighten their belts. But the real unknown is the financial system and the huge house of cards built on the mortgages, while foreclosures gallop.
precisely to compensate for the outbreak of the American housing bubble, the Trimurti Sino-US-Japan is desperately pumping the other bubbles, especially equities. It is believed that the wealth effect deriving from increased stock market may counteract or at least mitigate the effect of poverty deriving from the fall in house prices. Also, since the stock market bubble is global, it is believed that the U.S. recession is more than offset by growth in the rest of the world. To convince the most recalcitrant, they place around also theories that the actions today would be "undervalued" and have plenty of room for growth. The bubble because there would be no divergence between prices and fundamentals.
In fact, years of excess have greatly inflated the so-called fundamentals (profits, cash-flows). And the stock market bubble continues to expand, not because it is rational and economically sensible, but why it continues the imbalance in external accounts based in the country issuing the currency international monetary system in an essentially fixed exchange rates of the major creditor countries, and So that creates a constant and growing expansion of global liquidity and credit, which has to end somewhere. The game of the bubbles are able to grow all of Music in this context indicates that if and when someone breaks out, to be replaced by 'acceleration of another.
At this stage, the U.S. housing bubble is deflating, and those on comodities and bonds have stopped espandesi, ergo you blow up more than one shareholder, by massively increase the inequality between the income.

RAW MATERIALS: food inflation
bollificazione The cost of the pay the people, whose purchasing power scende.I prices of agricultural commodities and food retail record start to the increase annually by 30 years now. The prices of agricultural commodities in general are volatile due to changes in climate, crops, etc.. But what is striking in this current phase of inflation is that food are going up all at the same time, great.
This is an important event, as explained in previous notes, because if they are shot in the stomach in hundreds of millions in developing countries, their governments would be obliged to change their fixed exchange rate's policy of inflation (starting with China), and the background of the financial markets would change dramatically. For the rest phase
laterale.I metals moved little, they concluded the almost unchanged (except that the platinum back after the recent run due to the introduction of the ETF). The oil after rising last week, has retraced up to 64 and the deadline closes in July to 65.2. Also rejected by the resistance of natural gas to 7.8 on the end of July.
It concludes with gold at 662 (August) silver 13 (July) Copper 332 (July) platinum in 1277 (July) PD 373 (September). Index CRB at 313 (June).

position to more than 6 months upwards

3-6 months Location: Side

Location assets: physical gold

CURRENCY: U.S. dollar still strong

The dollar, as a general index, concludes the week slightly upwards to 82.27 achieved at the expense a little of all other currencies, with the yen as weak as ever, unable to maintain the gains occasional retreat in commodity currencies and the euro, which has not issued its own right. The profile followed by euro-dollar this week is in line with the scenario bearish note last week. Break since Monday in support of 1.348, 1.343 and then rebound to fall Wednesday 1.352 new fast and quick to fall Thursday at 1.3425 twice and tested without show strength in rebounds, with a tendency to gravitate to areas where 1.345 concludes. Overall, it still shows the predominance of downward pressure. Nevertheless I think that it is forming a base that should lead to a bullish phase from the lows of 100-150 Tiksi. More precisely, if 1.3425 will confirm the floor of the weekly range, a good chance of a leg bullish but it must prove to exceed the limit to 1.3525 for more ambitions. Next week there are lots of ideas to increase volatility, with the max. Friday at the two-hour fire on U.S. data. There in seven days the expiry of the options in June, you will understand in what range will be the end: for now the more likely is the one from 0.345 to 1, 355. Also for the next octave can therefore assume two scenarios, including favors to the upside above downward menzionato.Scenario: breaching new lows of 1.3425 and 1.338 envisaged up to where should develop a reaction but that is unlikely to bring over 1.35 with data for June 1 weak dollaro.Scenario upwards, keeping 1.3425 and bet up area 1.355, surmountable if the package on June 1 was clearly weak.
The general index of the dollar to 82.1 (June)

more than 6 months Location: dollar general downward

3-6 months Location: dollar asset side

Location: call + buy put spreads (deadline June 8), sold in September straddle

BONDS: arrive SWF

The rise in yields continues, homogeneous along the entire curve of the schedule, with the ten-year U.S. which reaches a maximum 4.9% the year before to reverse after the decline in U.S. existing home sales on Friday. The movement is based on the global stock-market bubble that attracts capital to the detriment dell'obbligazionario: for example, this week it was revealed that China has invested 3 billion. dollars of its reserves in private equity fund Blackstone (previously invested in U.S. Treasury securities). It 'just the beginning as China announced it would allocate up to 300 billion. in alternative investments, equivalent to the amount that can be operated with all the leverage disponiile the first 4 private equity funds in the world. Other countries (emerging, oil, etc.). They're going to go that route with the creation of so-called SWF (sovereign wealth funds): in other words, central banks become investment funds (SWFs are estimated to reach 2 , 5 trillion dollars)! Against all the prudential principles typical of these entities, there will be another huge boost to the global megabolla, but bond yields will lose a part of the classic state support, and therefore move upward. How to balance
week, the U.S., the future 3-month December 2007 rose by 2 cents. to 5.22%, the biennial salt of 4 cts. 4.86% in the five-year rises of 6 cts. 4.79%, the ten-year 6 to 4.86% and the thirtieth anniversary of 4 cts. 5%. In Europe, the ten-year bund salt of 7 cents. to 4.38% for which the differential with U.S. bonds of similar duration decreases to 48 cents. Japan also is adapting: the ten-year rises of 8 cents. 1, 72%, as well as the emerging bond markets, with rising yields in the range of 10 cents.

position over 6 months to rising yields

position at 3-6 months: the rise in asset returns

Location: nothing

BAGS: Greenspan tries

As expected after clearance by the Trimurti, the week started well. But then came the declaration of the largest maker of bubble in history, Alan Greenspan, who now has no official position says to the other (the Chinese) that the stock market bubble is set to explode dramatically. Thank you, Alan, of discovery, shame, however, that when this gentleman spoke of irrational exuberance on the Nasdaq in 1996 and ran it would take 5 years before coming to the outbreak, which occurred just after that in March 2000, in another speech famous, Greenspan said, but believed that it was a "new paradigm".
fact is that Shanghai has continued unabated to run this week, while Wally has wavered a little, and there are signs of spoilage, as can be seen from the indicators mentioned below.
The week ends with Dow at 13,506 (-0.4%) SP500 to 1515 (-0.5%) NASDAQ in 2557 (-0%) Nasdaq100 in 1893 (-0.4%) Russell 2000 +0, Transport 8% -1.3% -2.3% Utilities -4.4% semiconductor broker-dealer Banks -0.3% -0.8%. The titles on the upside on the NYSE have fluctuated between the maximum and minimum at 2100 Monday to Friday at 600. The relationship between put and call rises 0.77 to 0.93. The volatility index (VIX) rose from 12.75 to 13.3. The Nikkey rises to 17,480 (+0.5%), always in expanding the bubble on the DAX in 7739 (+1.8%), flex are the other indices: the hunting down to 6057 (-0.9%), the Footsie in 6570 (-1%) without the Italy at the slightest hope (affects the coupon): Intel Corp to 43,019 (-4.2%) and Mibtel to 33,619 (-4%). \u200b\u200bcontinued spectacular super-bubble in China, despite Greenspan's warning (+3.7%) , Brazil, India +0.2% -0.9% -3.4% and Russia.

position over 6 months: overall decline

3-6 months Location: general rise

asset position: buying put spreads composite maturity. June 15

WEATHER: final glowing

Monday holiday in the U.S. but also in England, Germany, Switzerland, there is nothing, and nothing should happen. Tuesday few secondary data arrives while the first event Wednesday night with the publication of the minutes of the Fed, the day will also come in M3 Europe. Then begins a final glow of the week. Thursday, Eastern German unemployment and confidence indices euro, while the weekly benefits to unemployed Americans, will be out for the second estimate of first quarter U.S. GDP could be revised from 1, 3 to 0.8%, followed the index for Chicago in May. Friday German retail sales and manufacturing indexes in Europe, but above all there will be a record of U.S. data contained in an interval of 90 minutes. 14.30 to come out data on the labor market in May as well as expenses and income of households in April, while 16 will come to the May ISM manufacturing, sales of homes (new compromises), and the index of Michigan. Needless to say, as most expected, as always, that the labor market, to which recently have formed positive forecasts (which have supported the dollar), a disappointment could trigger a strong movement.

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Economy: Trimurti docet

ECONOMY: The Trimurti docet
Between Thursday and Friday came a triple green light to mega bubble by the overall Sino-US-Japan Trimurti who is the author. He started
Japanese Central Bank, confirming that it will continue to hold 0.5% of the nominal interest rates of an economy that grows in the meantime of 4% in real terms over the past six months: experiment ever seen in history. Will therefore continue to give loans in yen at no cost to anyone who wants it, and therefore ensure additional prize money on the fact that exchange rate continues to fall.
He continued the head of the U.S. central bank, assuring the world that the bubble burst on mortgages with low quality is not a systemic problem and not create difficulties to the economy, and if so what implies that lower interest rates to show that there are problems, however, provides psychological security to the stock exchanges and the global financial market, the other throwing gasoline on the fire of speculation.
He ended the Central Bank of China giving birth to a mini maneuver so restrictive and so ridiculous that I could not even cause a momentary reaction of fear in the markets, but instead unleashed another blaze euphoric.
In Flash "China mocks" I have already described the measures providing for the facade, just minutes after the news arrived in late morning, which were not taken seriously and in fact the stock exchanges have flown in the afternoon (there is still no confirmation of Asia were already closed, we will have the Monday).
Here, however, I explain more fully why these measures are in front, which actually hold the green light on the great global bubble.
First, despite recent increases in the minimum required reserve ratio for banks (increased from 7.5 a year ago to 11, 5 current), the overnight interbank rate remains firm at 1, 57%. Why? because in the meantime, over the past 12 months, create new reserves have increased by 23% compared to created new quantity of money (M2) increased by 17%. Secondly, the mini
increase in the rate on bank deposits him at 3.06% compared to an official inflation rate of 3%. So why the Chinese guy should find that rate (zero in real terms) tempting in the face of a stock that goes up 150% in a year? and similarly those who get into debt, he must do now to 6.57%, but this can never frighten the real cost of 3.57% in front of the hyperbolic growth of the asset? not to mention that banks can lend to indebted to 1.57 and 6.57: If they can not care about the increase in reserves.
Finally, the exchange rate: anyone who understands that increasing the range of 0.2% revaluation, is to maintain the fixed exchange rate substantially, which means to continue to absorb most of the estimated 20 billion dollars a month coming in coffers of the central bank, which automatically match yaun many new fresh off the press that the same places in the national economy, fueling inflation and asset that goods and services. In short, the choice is clear: China pursues the policy infazionistica (in the name of the people and on the skin of the People).
So if some fear could rein in the bubble (the possibility that the Trimurti decide-at least in some of its component-deflated) now came quite less. The Trimurti
indeed, with the announcements of the last two days, basically explicitly invited to continue to bet on further rises in equities and commodities, of movable and immovable property, preferably in yen financing basis. The tap of the global liquidity from the huge deficit in dollar terms will continue tirelessly to raise the overall level of the tank. The dollar collapse is postponed for the time China and Japan will continue to support the greenback.
It follows that inflation will continue to rise relentlessly, not so much in the form of traditional indexes officers who are fake and tiered incidence of technological artifacts, as in that of the aforementioned assets and - new dangerous - in the form of food inflation. The price of food commodities will in fact be the Achilles' heel, especially the poor and those in Asia in particular.
however, that nothing can disturb the immediate parent of the Bull global credit bubble nor the many daughters (shares, etc.).

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Analysis

CURRENCY: The euro-dollar
support the dollar, as a general index ends the week where he began, a little above 82. The collapse that would occur in case of breakage 80 share, it seems averted from one side to the choices of the Trimurti, the other because the U.S. macro data - while being mixed and risk-have so far moved in his favor: the official consumer inflation in April was slightly decreased, the manufacturing sector shows signs of rebounding, while keeping consumer confidence (even if the crisis Immobiliare is far from over) thanks to employment in the indication obtained from these subsidies week seems to go better than expected. In this context
Eurodollar maturity. June has experienced two distinct phases: after the initial stand-by on Tuesday, U.S. inflation has exceeded the weakest area of \u200b\u200bresistance to up to 1.358 1.363. Not having had the strength to overcome this altitude (become new resistance), it quickly fell to 1.352 and then the first Friday after the Chinese anuncio until supportone of 1.348 that has continued to Pull back on closing to 1.353 (in basically a twin compared to the previous Friday). The euro-dollar movements for now performs more as a derivative dell'euroyen or commodity or stock, depending on the theme of the day, this is because, in addition to possible fluctuations, the framework of mutual interest rates appears to be well defined, and no individual data macros may change soon. Beyond the factors of indirect and occasional movements, however, seems to emerge a more downward pressure, due to the fact that the market had once bet on a Fed rate cut in August, while the latter tend to suppress evidence definitively this hypothesis; and most showed some doubt on the assumption that the ECB continues to raise interest rates after June. But over that amount, the weak U.S. macro data have more effect than strong because for the market is inconceivable that the Fed will raise rates while still more and more inclined to a possible fall. So maybe there is still room for some downward Eurodollar, especially if the ECB stands firm on interest rates, but not much, on the other hand the upside is possible that the top of the next month has already seen. With reference to what I wrote in my last note, I begin to see more then likely a Macro range from 1.37 to 1.32 in summer. Returning to the immediate
, technically, remains to be seen whether it will confirm the fee 1.348 weekly top floor of the range maybe content to 1.363, or if it will sell, and projected to cross 1.34. Next week, initially narrow range from 1.348 to 1.358 because there are no data until Thursday (German ifo, durable goods orders, home sales U.S.). However, other indirect factors mentioned above (especially the yen) could have the same cause breakage. Scenario
downward: the appointment would be 1.34 per share from where it should develop a reaction to the upside for the weekend can bring it back to 1.35 before a possible test of 1.33 in the eighth later if (and only if) the packet of monster-Friday, June 1 show unequivocally strong U.S. data (and a likely rise in the week next sequence view of the ECB and the conclusion - in this scenario, the options expire in June, 1.34 in area). Scenario
upwards, the appointment would 1.363 per unit which has become importnte resistance, in the eighth to beat the next if the quoted package on June 1 was clearly weak, with new tests of maximum area in 1.37 (and then probably transfer and termination - in this scenario-the expiry of options June in the area 1.36). The general index of the dollar to 82.1 (June) to more than six months
Location: dollar general downward
position in 3-6 months: dollar asset side
Location: call + buy put spreads (deadline June 8)

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The euro-dollar note on the market (20.5)

The week of 14 to 18 April 2005

MATERIALS PRIME: metals anticipate
metals were the only Chinese to anticipate the move, scaring unnecessarily, and the decline in the wake of last week continued their being profit-taking, only to bounce right after the news Friday as official seen sweeps away all fear. Now the implicit promise of future inflation should raise them with the one deriving from a possible brake greater strength of the dollar.
Oil continues to make history in itself: in the absence of other factors (climate, geopolitical) at the time, it remains to swing in a wide range. As a fundamental contradiction of the outstanding stock: Because there are bottlenecks in raffinanzione, gasoline stocks fall increase while those of raw (because you can not refine it), while there is a boom in Asian demand for raw, while many areas of production are politically weak (Venezuela, Nigeria, Middle East). The future is rising.
After last week's consolidation in recent days has consistently done the leg upward, closer to the top of the current range (60-70): the deadline closes on July 66. On the strength of natural gas to 8.14 on the expiration luglio.Si concludes with gold at 662 (June) silver 13 (July) copper at 332 (July) platinum in 1326 (July) palladium-365 (June).
The CRB index at 314.5 (June).
position to more than 6 months upwards
Position at 3-6 months: rising asset
Location: physical gold

BONDS: The yield on
decided rise in yields, uniform along the curve of the schedule, which brings them back to February levels, shows how this sector is also moving towards a scenario is not at risk, if anything, inflation and recession. The movement is also supported by the bubble sull'azionario attracting capital at the expense dell'obbligazionario. It remains to be well within the range for about a year and that has a roof (on the decennial U.S.) in area 5%, beyond which the problems would start (for blisters). How to balance weekly, in the U.S. the future 3-month December 2007 rose to 12 cts. to 5.20%, the biennial rises of 11 cents. to 4.82% in the five rooms of 15 cents. to 4.73%, the tenth of 12 to 4.8% and the thirtieth anniversary of 11 cents. to 4.96%. In Europe, the ten-year bund gained 10 cents. to 4.31% for which the differential with U.S. bonds of similar duration increased to 49 cents. In Japan however, the ten-year detention at 1, 64%. Bond markets are also emerging with slight increases in yields, but the spread shrinks with the Americans (as well as the spread of junk bonds) to testimony that the risk appetite continues to increase. Location
over 6 months to rising yields
3-6 months Location: Location
asset side: nothing

BAGS: green Wally
A week had not started well, especially among technology, pending the Trimurti that they feared could trigger the long-awaited correction, but after the reassurances of the Trimurti ended well, especially on the indices of showcase ( new record for the average nominal algebra of the 30 stocks that make up the Dow Jones): The gain is reflected precisely dell'sp500 Friday. The green light came from Trimurti still provides a semester of further rate hikes, possibly manic type (classic final phase of the bubbles), but does not prevent any corrections to materialize during the pulse, which serves just to start then with greater force that within the next month should get, maybe after the SP500 has touched a historic high rating of 1550, and should be in the order of a hundred punti.La week ends with Dow at 13,556 (+1.7%) in 1523 SP500 (+1.1%) NASDAQ in 2558 (-0.1%) Nasdaq100 in 1906 (-0.2%) Russell 2000 -0.7% +0.9% Utilities 1.2% transport semiconductor -2, 6% broker-dealer Banks -0.6% +0.8%. The titles on the upside on the NYSE have fluctuated between the minimum and maximum to 1100 Monday to Friday at 2100. The relationship between put and call rooms 0.68 to 0.77. The volatility index (VIX) drops to 12.75. The
Nikkey down to 17,400 (-0.8%), always filled the bubble in Europe with the DAX in 7607 (+1.8%) the CAC in 6101 (+0.9%), the Footsie in 6640 (+1.2%), Italy at the without the slightest hope: Intel Corp to 44,364 (+1.9%) and in Mibtel 343 653 824 (+1, 8%). superbubbles continued spectacular everywhere except in China where he took a breather in anticipation of measures came after the close on Friday (+0.2%) +3.7% Brazil 2.3% India and Russia +0.8%. Location
over 6 months: 3-6 months Location
overall decline: rise in overall asset position
: buying put spreads composite maturity. June 15

WEATHER: empty weeks

Monday there is nothing, just waiting to see confirmation of the Shanghai Stock Exchange (and should be positive, with further impetus to the global lists). German ZEW index Tuesday in May, while Paulson meets with Chinese. Wednesday the almost empty, and when you get to come out Thursday morning in the German IFO May, and in the afternoon by the U.S. orders for durable goods and sales of both new homes in April, along with the weekly benefits to unemployed important to see if is confirmed by the recent trend of force, launching optimistic expectations in the labor market in the calendar setttimana later.
closing Friday with Japan's inflation and sales of existing U.S. homes.
As you can see then in the first 3 days in the absence of any new macro data may come only from the political front (US-China meeting), while back in the final scene of any surprises on the U.S. economy. Expectations are for permanent orders under braking and building on recent stagnant minimum.

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Flash: China takes around 17.5

expected, particularly from commodities, came the Chinese move. Increase of 0.2% in the range of fluctuation of the dollar yaun, increased 18 cents. rates on loans and for 27 cents. deposits, increased 0.5% on minimum reserves. In practice, measurements of the facade, totally unnecessary if only to curb the huge super-bubble in Shanghai and the global.
fact almost no reaction on the part of bags, while foreign exchange there was only a bounce of the yen (the rest to an absolute minimum), which has pushed through euroyen the euro-dollar up to 1.348.
So nothing changes in reality, the Chinese continue their policy infazionistica, they are just giving a sop to front: I do not think therefore that the reactions can last and be particularly intense.

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Update

Yesterday the euro-dollar has not declined because of the data (at max. Intermarriage between production and licensing best building in free fall to its lowest for 10 years, which is the most significant It shows that the worst is yet to come for the real estate) neither of the bags that held through an ever weaker yen (euroyen made a new max. to almost 164), but due to a sudden slip of all commodities with heavy losses for copper, silver, gold, platinum. E 'fire reflex to buy dollars when the commodities are coming down, and so the dollar has gained against all starting with the Australian and the rest. There are rumors of an imminent rate hike in China and this may explain the drop in metals, and also their correction is entirely physiological. The Eurodollar
still did not go below 1.3520, and is now swinging back to 1.355 which is the point from which he had begun the week, until Tuesday when, after U.S. data on inflation has shot up to 1.363 level retested yesterday, and the keeping of which had already started a retracement tramutatosi then falling just as a result of commodities and the first break of 1.3575 support.
today's movements can be triggered by any surprises on weekly benefits and the Philly Fed, but it seems unlikely that both sets of data can do much one way or another, some news could come from speeches by Greenspan and Bernanke, but also here is not very likely. Technically, it is important to see if the area is threatened 1.349 downward and possible reactions at this level, if nothing happens and it remains so smooth, there are good probable that range from 1.35 to 1.363 harder still for a long time, since the timing of next week (assuming that the current framework remains weak yen and strong with commodities exchanges in bedding).

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Economy: Notes on the Chinese question

ECONOMY: the Chinese question
The week ends with a sharp contraction of U.S. consumers, whose retail sales in April, not only were lower than expected, but in real terms are now in decline dry. Of course, now the sirens are games designed to throw water on the fire, and launched the term Mapril to say that since there had been some disturbances (Easter holidays) on the data of April, what counts is the sum of March (revised slightly upward) and April. But even so, in real terms, the deceleration is indisputable, even more so when one considers that in the meantime spread consumer loans. In short, the iperindebitato American consumer, despite still being drugged by easy credit, begin to suffer from the housing crisis, while the gas continues to be the highest. Nevertheless, foreign imports continue to grow at rates well in excess of exports, with the result that the trade deficit in March compared to February increased by almost 10% to 63 billion share.
E 'is therefore likely that the GDP in the first quarter is revised downwards from 1, 3% of the first estimate, not only because of the increased deficit, but also for stocks declining. And the data on the second quarter, which last week had seemed better start after this flessone consumption back into question, and whether consumers will continue the downward trend in late July could get the news that the U.S. GDP is located near the 0%.

This week has re-emerged in the middle of the Chinese question. The yaun has gained on the dollar, and we expect a rate hike in China, after the nth data further increase the trade surplus and domestic inflation, which march very well, apart from the super-bubble stock. All in anticipation of the end of month the American delegation, particularly sensitive after the recent protectionist moves.
Several times I wrote that the degeneration in global liquidity could end up being just that China wanted. Each time, however, I have concluded that at least until the Olympics of 2008 can not see what could convince the Chinese to do so, having created a perverse Nash Equilibrium.

Well, the latest data on food inflation in China, opened a window of opportunity: in fact it is conceivable that when the great inflation caused by China's political will to attack the already vast majority of poor bellies which is located in the countryside, even in the presence the strict repression of the Chinese communists are capable, the scheme would be forced to act as a priority the reduction in food prices: and at that point must be reversed 180 degrees, the current monetary policy.
But even here, what matters is the structural aspect, as well as philosophical and political issue in China. We are in a situation where a Communist dictatorship, led by a feudal oligarchy formed with means, in the name of the People, became the largest exploiter of the people that ever existed in history. Hundreds of millions of people are made to work 15 hours a day for starvation wages, without any protection whatsoever. By using this savage exploitation of people in the name of Marx (I imagine it turning in his grave), not only is unleashed a savage as development that threatens the entire planet in terms of eco-environment, but it is Picconato the international monetary system, giving a decisive push to the double mutation carcinogen that I wrote recently, so today's self-interest of a caste in power produces deadly global effects. In setting his nazi-fascist (the death penalty, lack of freedom of opinion, etc.). The large clique that controls China has found it easy to play the role of starting the monopoly capitalist economic and political process that will lead to the Great War Global also because the other side he found the Western decadence, well represented by the Bush political useful idiots, in their Once manipulated by powerful economic blinded by lust for profit and easily.
is why, in my opinion, there is no way out: a tangle of interests "particulari" that distort the general, now the threshold of no return has passed, the road leading global annihilation is in steep descent and humanity is the driving on a bus without brakes, but with lots of music on board (Titanic style).

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markets (13.5)

week, from 7 to 11 May 2007

RAW MATERIALS: oil stabilizes at

Oil a consolidation after recent losses: the deadline closes July 64. Stable resistance just below the natural gas at 8.04 on expiration in July, while the gas at the pump for Americans share remains above $ 3 a gallon, weighing on their purchasing power.
metals in trouble because they have confirmed the correlation of short, direct and inverse to the dollar with the stock markets. Losses of 4% for copper, and about 2% for gold and argento.Si concludes with gold at 672 (June) Silver 13.3 (July) copper at 360 (July) platinum in 1341 (July) palladium 368 (June). The CRB index to 312 (June). Location

long-term upward

position in the medium-term upward

Asset Location: nothing

BONDS: narrow range
In a context of central banks paralyzed, the returns are always plastered with variations of a few cents, and ended the week with a slight rise despite the decline of American consumers. Moreover, the Fed has maintained the level of a school in its press (the growth has declined, but later it will increase, inflation rose, but then decrease), the ECB is limited to confirming the new expected for months now rise again the policy rate to 4% in June, but has gone further, only the BOE has raised its rates by a quarter (which have now surpassed those of the USA, 5.5%) but the expectations were for half a point, and the future is too open. Not to mention the last Asian: next week rates certainly still stuck to the Japanese, but if the Chinese will do something, it will be in the order of some incli absolutely useless. The Bond world are cast, then, between the support given to them by the flood of liquidity and the possible risks of recession on the one hand, and the brake caused the other hand, for fear of inflation (which are obvious and quoted by the same bankers central as the main concern). As balance weekly, the USA, the future 3-month December 2007 rose by 3 cents. to 5.08%, the two-year rises of 4 cts. 4.71% in the five-year rises of 3 cts. to 4.58%, the tenth anniversary of 4 to 4.68% and the thirtieth anniversary of 4 cts. 4.85%. In Europe, the ten-year bund rises by 2 cents. to 4.21% for which the differential with U.S. bonds of similar duration is still at 47 cents. Even in Japan, the ten-year rises by 2 cents. 1, 64%. Bond markets are also emerging with slight increases in yields. Location
long-term yields to rise

position in the medium term asset side

Location: nothing

WEATHER: busy week of transition
Monday, then Tuesday, German GDP and especially the U.S. index consumer prices in April that it expected a slight decline in net component from Petroio and food, and therefore if it could have surprise on the upside bearish on bonds and stocks, bullish on the dollar. Also more on Tuesday in New York and American indices and housing data on capital inflows in March. Wednesday will be the shift of consumer prices in Europe, and in the afternoon of U.S. shipyards and construction licenses, followed by U.S. industrial production and a variety of verbal interventions of other men Fed busy day Thursday, beginning with the decision of the BOJ (obviously rates still, but possible indications of the future that if more aggressive forecast, which would boost the yen), followed by a speech by Bernanke, and then the leading indicator and the Philly Fed (more will be said Greenspan is also some risk that it foreshadows the recession in contrast with the official optimism of the Fed.) Finally there is the G8 and Friday as the index of the Michigan data only on trust, prior to May.
As you can see a lot of irons in the fire, with the highlights from the building represented by inflation and U.S., as well as by the Bank of Japan. It is not excluded that it could trigger a very bad mix Wally with high inflation and housing crisis, which can be added to a surge in the yen (and this would be the scenario that paradoxically could lead to a euro-dollar to 1.34).

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Bags: Chinese

BAGS: The Chinese disaster
After the fall on Thursday, with losses of more than 1% indexes have recovered Friday by reference in almost equal for the week and respecting the spirit of the script in place that will impress both with other violent expansion , is bursting with attempts failed, and finally with the outbreak that will truly devastating when nobody expects it. The
there will give the super-bubble burst of the Chinese, came to attract the attention of finance - listen, listen-at Goldman Sachs who has finally sounded the alarm. Better late than never. Certainly the figures are now feeling at all, apart from +170% in the last 12 months:
- the capitalization of Shanghai surpassed that of all other Asian stock markets combined, including Japan which is the second stock exchange in the world;
- the Shanghai index has quadrupled in less than 2 years;
- the price earnings ratios (for what they can claims the official figures) are more than 40-50;
- in April alone were opened new accounts for 4.8 million more shares of the last two years combined.
Even the Chinese authorities continue to say that there is a bubble, and the frantic race to enrich the stock market has affected even the poorest, who are selling the bike and the bowl of rice just to buy shares. But authorities still do not do anything really effective to prevent this collective suicide. E 'unthinkable that some adjustments to the rates or reserve requirements to curb the phenomenon of this magnitude, on the other hand even the closing of the market for several years, the only solution, it is conceivable despite the communist dictatorship. So, sooner or later there will be a colossal disaster that will cause suicide and despair for millions of hapless Chinese guy, in addition to impact all global stock markets. On 27 February there was a false alarm of a fall of 10% then quickly recovered, and today we are at 33% from levels pre February 27. When the bubble burst I expect losses in the order of 80% and after years of stagnation (like Japan). The case of China will law of the great stock market crash in history. Welcome to the club!
The week ends with the 11.5: Dow at 13,326 (+0.5%) SP500 in 1505 (+0%) NASDAQ in 2562 (-0.4%) Nasdaq100 in 1910 (+0.2%) Russell 2000 - Transport 0.4% -0.1% Utilities -0.1% +0.1% semiconductor broker-dealer Banks -1.2% -0.2%. The titles ranged upward on the NYSE on Thursday between the minimum to 700 and the maximum at 2500 on Friday. The relationship between put and call drops from 0.75 to 0.68. The volatility index (VIX) stopped at 12.95. The Nikkey rises to 17,550 (+0.8%), always filled the bubble in Europe with the DAX in 7480 (-0.4%), the CAC in 6050 (-0.3%), the Footsie in 6565 (-0.8%), Italy at the without the slightest hope to Intel Corp 43,590 (-0.9%) and Mibtel to 33,824 (-0.8%). superbubbles in China continues the spectacular +7%, Brazil 0.6% and India down (-1 %) and Russia 4%. Location

long-term overall decline in the medium term

Location: Side

asset position: buying put spreads composite maturity. May 18

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disaster forecast euro-dollar exchange

updated to 12.5

The dollar has retraced as general index, 50% of the fall of the last month, despite a week of recovery Fundamental remain largely negative (deficit sales up 10% in March, decreasing consumption). One hand it to him on the yen, which has in turn recovered in relation to all currencies, helped by some stronger statement of Japan, mainly from uncertainties as well as registered shares and commodities (partial closure of the carry trades). In this context
Eurodollar maturity. June did not observe the expected range, bucandolo downward and reaching the minimum of 1.348 but then rebound in the final hours, thanks to weak U.S. retail sales and close to 1.355.
The Eurodollar is therefore returned to the levels of testing a month ago the former resistance area of \u200b\u200b1.35 has now become an important support.
If you look at the trend from mid-January onwards, it is noted that the June futures has traded in a range of regular range in scope and duration: every half month broke the previous resistance has become a new medium, and shifted upward about 200 Tiksi. So from 1.295 to 1.313 increased to 1.313 to 1.332, then 1.332 to 1.348 and finally last month (as a whole) to 1.348 to 1.3715. The range of the last month was the largest, is divided neatly into two trends: bullish and bearish in the first 20 days in the last 10 who have just returned to the starting point. Next month, it seems difficult that we can continue with the previous series, but as the fundamentals remain negative for the dollar, the scenario more likely it is a return, although in a zig-zag, to 1.37 (so another month of stay in the range from 1.349 to 1.3715).
Alternatively, however - though less likely, that if it triggers in conjunction with the U.S. data and best accompanied by a falling stock market recovery of the yen, the retracement is amplified and the change is going to be installed on the range in between mid-March and mid-April (1.332 to 1.349).
All these arguments are used for the selection of bands to be acquired through options.
In the last week I could put in the portfolio, to the almost zero cost, using the put spreads, which range from 1.335 to 1.355 as we have seen is one of the eligible candidates for the deadline of 8 June. Now the ideal would be to acquire, through the call, the first .355-1, 375 (the probability that the June 8 is 1.335 to 1.375 nell'intervallone terms are very high, whatever the scenario realizzantesi). Next week should be between 1.357 (become resistant to short) and just 1.348, keeping it level and an eventual overtaking of resistance cited above, in the wake further weak macro data, avvalorerà defined above scenario more likely.
The general index of the dollar to 82.06 (June) Location of long-term dollar decline generalePosizione medium-term dollar assets decline generalePosizione: buying put spreads + calls maturity. June

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Special COLLAGE

Special Collage

The parties' philosophical-political "of my recent articles on economics liked, so I find it useful to combine them in a special Special for easy reading.

What makes this unique period and especially dangerous for systemic is that the speculative mania reached its zenith in sophisticated private credit, which have no transparency and moved without any formal control by committees of business ( central banks). What matters is not so much the percentage increases on the instruments traditional, but the enormous accumulation of small profit differentials (spreads) to tens of trillions of dollars of leverage in structured credit instruments. The soul of the maniacal is only Electronics and speculation over the counter, "that is outside the regulations listed markets where transit stocks, bonds, etc.. And is managed solely by powerful international banks, not by chance that tend to blend together in order to amplify the ability to make this unprecedented speculation and that is invisible to the masses.
The financial system must continue to expand more rapidly and to maintain the growing pyramid of debt underlying, supporting income and profits, ergo the real economy. As is now obvious, this type of credit expansion does nothing but add new excess dollar liquidity that already exists. The Ponzi scheme (to pay the debt by other debts) can not last forever, at some point you reach the limit: you have to borrow even to pay interest on existing debt. And while it lasts, it creates inflation. Suffice it to say that in 1980 a dollar of new debt created a new dollar of GDP today to have a new dollar of GDP, it takes $ 8 of new debt. That's why the inflation of value (gold) will continue to rise.

Therefore,
the focus must remain on the structural situation of unprecedented the world is experiencing. A report by the IMF certifies that the foreign exchange reserves of central banks as a whole increased from $ 2 trillion in 2000 to the current 5 trillion (not including another 40% of resources that might be deemed de facto reserves). The nominal value of derivatives has increased from 80 trillion to 370 trillion (to have an idea, the U.S. GDP is 12 trillion). It is no coincidence that in the meantime, the U.S. trade deficit has quadrupled. Central banks, beginning with those of emerging countries, are full of cash, which is multiplied by going through the credit system (this week, for example, it was learned that a new record of the growth has M3 also made the European Union, almost 11%). The great inflation of prices of capital assets that we are witnessing, is the effect actually visible. The synchronized growth of credit, the U.S. deficit, dollar flows, speculation lever could not have done if central banks had not taken the real interest rates to minimal levels when non-negative, and acted as buyers of last Wasghinton instance in print: in 2006 only increased their reserves of 1 trillion, and in 2007 it is traveling at a rate of +30%. In particular, the exponential boom in derivatives over the counter "could happen only through the action of recycling dollars by central banks: can count on this safety net has enhanced the ability speculative, the acceptance of ever-higher risks and therefore the elimination of the risk premium by the global system. Have eliminated the risk of borrowing in the yen exchange rate, is the clearest example of this degeneration "moral" rather than economic and financial gambling is immoral.

Even more important is to understand the genetic mutation of the coin and philosophy sottostante.Come a cancer cell, money - from tangible goods used to facilitate the production and trade in goods and services between people - has turned into a intangible Trust Act, which killed the mechanism autoriequilibrante precisely the link that allowed systemic production and trade. In a world based on a tangible commodity money such as gold, it would be impossible for a country to accumulate indefinitely in a trade deficit with the rest of the world, because sooner or later the gold reserves of the country end up: at that point no one

sell the goods for nothing, and the country would be forced to reduce its excess of imports, and indeed should force at all costs to sell more than buy in order to replenish the reserves in gold.

So a mechanism that tends to rebalance.

But in a world based on an intangible currency, the dollar, it is possible for the country prints accumulate a deficit indefinitely until the rest of the world continues to "trust" and as the dollars earned are returned to the country of origin in order to maximize its performance, not only is there no more balancing on the contrary it is to enhance the imbalance original (via artificially low interest rates, capital inflows, etc.).. The fact is that the perverse act depends primarily on the trustee conception of self-interest of one who does trust, rather than the merits of foster care .

And here we come to the crucial philosophical point.

From the "invisible hand" postulated by Adam Smith - a moral philosopher of the 18th century in his monumental work The Wealth Nations ("do not expect good bread from the baker's good heart, but his selfishness .."), why capitalism based on perfectly competitive general well-being produced using self-interest - we are now past the" visible hand " oligopolistic capitalism that transforms the individual interest and selfishness in general malaise. In particular, making the price of money (interest rate) subject to dirigiste decision by the issuer, and no longer subject to free the law of supply and demand, has made national interests conflict short term, with the general interest of the long term. Just think of the competitive devaluations of currencies in which all are competing to export more to devalue. The Japanese, for example, take the negative real interest rates and the exchange rate of its currency devalued because they think they do their own self-interest national (support for exports, domestic demand, etc..), But in doing so create a blatant distortion Global enormous size that it is against the public interest: the chance immorale.E 'the key point we are talking about little or nothing (and the rest who should say? the financial industry, which is the beneficiary?) . Everything else is just the surface manifestations of this reality that is deep in the bowels of the current system, and that one day you will pay the bill (salty).

Less competition, more profits. A few international centers of power: management easier and more effective. Among some no more than one mega bank worldwide. After all anyone, if it were at the top of the dome, what do you prefer? control a handful of powerful heads of households, or a lot of loose dogs more or less? It 'been so since the world and the world, in various forms, but with the same substance. Therefore, liberal capitalism, based on perfect competition and the absence of monopolies and oligopolies (the best invention of the socio-economic human thought), could not last, it was a utopia as the Sun City of Thomas More. Instead monopoly capitalism has triumphed in planning central iron regime as the case may be Communist or fascist, or disguised as "democracy" (the term most cursed the world after God) technology, as dazzling as an advertisement, to better exploit the ignorant masses.

However, if this was the winning model, more adapted to human beings, there would have to take note of that. Too bad, though, is leading the planet quickly, which is designed like a great bubble gum blowing in which all types of poisons produced by lungs full of selfishness and greed, unlimited physical self-destruction.
PS: I have never deliberately said "politics" because the tissue would like to mention about a review on the direction of Striscia la Notizia. I do not see even as a Marxian superstructure of memory (too much honor), but simply as a doormat on which the economic powers rub mud on their shoes before returning home.

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Flash: Friday delicate

Flash: Friday
delicate situation of what would make the dollar and stock market today?
If, as almost always in the recent past, the second bounce it back down and the yen, then the euro to rebound, especially if U.S. retail sales will be weak as possible, but difficult to go further 1.357 become strong resistance area.
If, however, the stock market were to give up yet, it is likely that a repetition of the situation yesterday, and although retail sales may prove weak euro-dollar could fall even only up to 1.3460 (rather than 1.34 as in the case of Retail sales strong). In each case cmq. the week will close on the sign of the weakness of the euro, and it is likely that there will be a continuation to that effect with the beginning of next.

A Wall Street during the crash yesterday bought especially call on the bag (instead of as normal when you put down, to cover) is rare, demonstrating an extreme confidence in the market. There is a historical precedent: in March 2000. If the market can be traced to new highs - and there would be no wonder - would indicate that a bubble is materializing far superior to that of 2000.

Confucius, watching the stock markets today, reminds us that:

"There are three ways to learn wisdom: first, by reflection, the noblest, and secondly, with emulation, easiest, third with the experience, the more bitter "

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Flash: Flash

Flash: all euroyen

Eurodollars fell to below the 1.35 support because of the fierce euroyen is slip was triggered by Wally: I am courses to turn a bit of carry trade, mainly because those in euro after Trichet has seemed hesitant to June (ie raise rates to 4% in June, but remained vague on the post). Moral of the story: the yen has gained against the dollar (effect of bag) back below 120, but gained mostly on down to € 161.5. This led to a Eurodollar precisely to below 1.35 even if tomorrow's retail sales are envisaged weak in accordance with the statements from the major chains today.
PS One may hope that the fall of Wally is a harbinger of waiting corrections up to next Friday and a further loss of 3% -4% in profit would put on the combination of the SP500.

Mature Removes Girdle

all euroyen: FED property

Flash: FED property

As expected the Fed's statement is virtually identical to the previous, then nothing will happen, remains cmq. The major concern of inflation front, and invoking this could lower the euro-dollar up to 1.35. If this happens (difficult) would be an opportunity for tomorrow's (ECB) to put in an order to purchase a couple of call: the first, 36 to 0.0046 and 1, 38 to 0, 0012 which will be useful to get a free range, because it is simply a return to 1.357 to sell twice as many to equal 1.37.