ECONOMY: particulare versus general
Wednesday 6, about the crash of the stock market and the surge in yields, wrote that the movement would not be lasting for long. And in fact as early as Friday, everything was back. Rates after a modest correction of 3% have recovered half the loss in a few days, as yields idem. Doing this just real time prediction was easy knowing where to look. Nothing has changed in global monetary policy: China and Japan continues with impunity to pump liquidity, the Fed is not even remotely dream of raising rates, the ECB will continue its rise again in front of a snail's pace (and parodossale, clear sign of confusion of time, that are the left-unions-etc. to criticize the ECB to raise interest rates: do not understand that fraud against the people is precisely to keep real interest rates too low, benefiting the large debtors, but there you are ...).
Under these conditions, as painted in the notes of seven days ago, the likely scenario is always the one described here. Within which there is obviously room for acute phases of volatility and exaggerated, just because the iperfinanziarizzato global system is based on a series of mechanical vulnerable in times of fear triggered by various chance factors.
For example, this week the surge in oil due to direct storm occurred while the Strait of Hormuz productivity data came down and labor costs rising When, Bernanke repeated his usual mantra of the facade (the growth will resume, the more risk to infazione), has generated fears of a rise in U.S. rates by more than ten-year bond at the threshold of 5% yield. At that point have taken other sales of bonds, automated and computerized, the giants of the mortgage used to hedge interest rate risk (those with fixed-rate loans to protect themselves from rising interest rates, of course, sells bonds to fixed rate ), and given the huge sums involved and the usual technical mechanisms (stop loss, speculation that rides the momentum, etc.). in a few hours there was a jump of more than 10 cts. which then came to a peak max. 5.20 a share reached in the European Union on Friday morning, and only the forcings due to speculation, also catalyzed by the unexpected rise in interest rates to 8% New Zealand, which had the counterpart not only on stock indices came to lose 3% Earlier this week, but also on commodities and especially the dollar against all that was stolen.
game so easy for the PPT (plunge protection team) Paulson to intervene in support of the quotations with the opening of Wally taking advantage of the abolition of fears about the damage of the cyclone in the Persian Gulf (oil down) and snap the opposite movement during the afternoon, accelerated in the final classic sign triumph. So the indices retrieved the 1, 5, returning to 5.1% yields, the dollar back down even if only slightly, remaining outside the rebound only commdities (will do so next week).
Among other things, the logic according to which the sick prevailing inflation risk there can be only if there is growth (which is not true, especially in this age of iperfinanziarizzazione), these falls occur when impulsive fear a rise in inflation, there is an automatic parachute: the conjunction of the rise in yields-falling stock market, it represents in itself a depressant growth, and therefore it will follow then that now suffers a decline in inflation. A majority reason the American economy where the disastrous real estate can only get worse if the cost of mortgages rises. Well with that logic, by definition, crises are absorbed immediately. If we consider that those in power can easily choose the time at which to reverse the trend by bringing down the field in his arm (the number of Goldman, Morgan etc..), Causing the coatings to the bearish speculation, and we consider that the taps of global liquidity due to stay open up to Chinese and Japanese, is easy to see how there is no game. Only very strong external events, such as a true geopolitical crisis, can trigger something more serious and lasting.
course, as I illustrated at the time in a separate Special who's boss - to boost its profits - need step "corrective", from time to time. Since the market bubble, outrageously over-valued, it is possible that there is a very hot summer, with other episodes like this, but (until we change the aforementioned monetary policies) will always be reabsorbed (even if we beat the failure of some large financial entity ).
clear, therefore, the episode of the week, I prefer to insist instead on the nature of the system to be deeply carcinogen.
Having betrayed the rule of free competition, as simple as essential, and having destroyed the operation of the law of supply and demand in crucial sector of the currency, reduced to mere act of trust and monopoly became interventionist states that drive interest rates, has destroyed the basic principle of general equilibrium theory, which allowed special interests to become general interest.
now no more hope, the evidence grows every day. It goes from boom in mergers and acquisitions (which increases the monopoly in growing more and more sectors), contempt for the irreparable damage that the myth of continuous growth causes the same physical environment in which humanity lives. With a current example, just look at the ridiculous outcome of the G8 on ecological measures. Emerges clearly as their particular interests submitted without pity the public interest.
Where today would be possible, technologically, connect via video conference at no cost, you instead spend hundreds of millions of dollars, and produce an additional heavy pollution, a farce in which the media puppets come together, knowing that they can not conclude anything serious, if not give some sop facade with temporal perspectives to 2050 (sigh!), dropping a few crumbs from the table to feed their dogs wagging shift (African) and get a clear conscience.
painful.
Wednesday 6, about the crash of the stock market and the surge in yields, wrote that the movement would not be lasting for long. And in fact as early as Friday, everything was back. Rates after a modest correction of 3% have recovered half the loss in a few days, as yields idem. Doing this just real time prediction was easy knowing where to look. Nothing has changed in global monetary policy: China and Japan continues with impunity to pump liquidity, the Fed is not even remotely dream of raising rates, the ECB will continue its rise again in front of a snail's pace (and parodossale, clear sign of confusion of time, that are the left-unions-etc. to criticize the ECB to raise interest rates: do not understand that fraud against the people is precisely to keep real interest rates too low, benefiting the large debtors, but there you are ...).
Under these conditions, as painted in the notes of seven days ago, the likely scenario is always the one described here. Within which there is obviously room for acute phases of volatility and exaggerated, just because the iperfinanziarizzato global system is based on a series of mechanical vulnerable in times of fear triggered by various chance factors.
For example, this week the surge in oil due to direct storm occurred while the Strait of Hormuz productivity data came down and labor costs rising When, Bernanke repeated his usual mantra of the facade (the growth will resume, the more risk to infazione), has generated fears of a rise in U.S. rates by more than ten-year bond at the threshold of 5% yield. At that point have taken other sales of bonds, automated and computerized, the giants of the mortgage used to hedge interest rate risk (those with fixed-rate loans to protect themselves from rising interest rates, of course, sells bonds to fixed rate ), and given the huge sums involved and the usual technical mechanisms (stop loss, speculation that rides the momentum, etc.). in a few hours there was a jump of more than 10 cts. which then came to a peak max. 5.20 a share reached in the European Union on Friday morning, and only the forcings due to speculation, also catalyzed by the unexpected rise in interest rates to 8% New Zealand, which had the counterpart not only on stock indices came to lose 3% Earlier this week, but also on commodities and especially the dollar against all that was stolen.
game so easy for the PPT (plunge protection team) Paulson to intervene in support of the quotations with the opening of Wally taking advantage of the abolition of fears about the damage of the cyclone in the Persian Gulf (oil down) and snap the opposite movement during the afternoon, accelerated in the final classic sign triumph. So the indices retrieved the 1, 5, returning to 5.1% yields, the dollar back down even if only slightly, remaining outside the rebound only commdities (will do so next week).
Among other things, the logic according to which the sick prevailing inflation risk there can be only if there is growth (which is not true, especially in this age of iperfinanziarizzazione), these falls occur when impulsive fear a rise in inflation, there is an automatic parachute: the conjunction of the rise in yields-falling stock market, it represents in itself a depressant growth, and therefore it will follow then that now suffers a decline in inflation. A majority reason the American economy where the disastrous real estate can only get worse if the cost of mortgages rises. Well with that logic, by definition, crises are absorbed immediately. If we consider that those in power can easily choose the time at which to reverse the trend by bringing down the field in his arm (the number of Goldman, Morgan etc..), Causing the coatings to the bearish speculation, and we consider that the taps of global liquidity due to stay open up to Chinese and Japanese, is easy to see how there is no game. Only very strong external events, such as a true geopolitical crisis, can trigger something more serious and lasting.
course, as I illustrated at the time in a separate Special who's boss - to boost its profits - need step "corrective", from time to time. Since the market bubble, outrageously over-valued, it is possible that there is a very hot summer, with other episodes like this, but (until we change the aforementioned monetary policies) will always be reabsorbed (even if we beat the failure of some large financial entity ).
clear, therefore, the episode of the week, I prefer to insist instead on the nature of the system to be deeply carcinogen.
Having betrayed the rule of free competition, as simple as essential, and having destroyed the operation of the law of supply and demand in crucial sector of the currency, reduced to mere act of trust and monopoly became interventionist states that drive interest rates, has destroyed the basic principle of general equilibrium theory, which allowed special interests to become general interest.
now no more hope, the evidence grows every day. It goes from boom in mergers and acquisitions (which increases the monopoly in growing more and more sectors), contempt for the irreparable damage that the myth of continuous growth causes the same physical environment in which humanity lives. With a current example, just look at the ridiculous outcome of the G8 on ecological measures. Emerges clearly as their particular interests submitted without pity the public interest.
Where today would be possible, technologically, connect via video conference at no cost, you instead spend hundreds of millions of dollars, and produce an additional heavy pollution, a farce in which the media puppets come together, knowing that they can not conclude anything serious, if not give some sop facade with temporal perspectives to 2050 (sigh!), dropping a few crumbs from the table to feed their dogs wagging shift (African) and get a clear conscience.
painful.
